OBAMA WINS BIG !

US SENATE. Republican incumbents defeated: John Sununu (R-NH), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC).Democratic incumbents defeated: None.GOP Won Open Seat Pickups: None.Dem Won Open Seat Pickups: Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia.Still Undecided: Minnesota, Oregon, Alaska.US HOUSE. Republican incumbents defeated: Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO), Chris Shays (R-CT), Ric Keller (R-FL), Tom Feeney (R-FL), Joe Knollenberg (R-MI), Randy Kuhl (R-NY), Robin Hayes (R-NC), Phil English (R-PA), Thelma Drake (R-VA), Virgil Goode (R-VA).Democratic incumbents defeated: Tim Mahoney (D-FL), Don Cazayoux (D-LA), Nick Lampson (D-TX). GOP Won Open Seat Pickups: None.Dem Won Open Seat Pickups: AL-2, AZ-1, IL-11, NJ-3, NM-1, NM-2, NY-13, NY-25, VA-11.Still Undecided: AK-1, ID-1, KS-2, MD-1, MI-7, MN-3, MN-6, NV-2, NV-3, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, WA-8, and all the California races.GOVERNORSHIPS. Republican incumbents defeated include: None.Democratic incumbents defeated include: None.GOP Won Open Seat Pickups: None.Dem Won Open Seat Pickups: Missouri.Election Night Thread #2Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.05.08 Permalink postCount('110508');COMMENTS (399) Election Night Thread #1Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.04.08 Permalink postCount('110408b');COMMENTS (791) TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.TODAY IS ELECTION DAY: OUR COVERAGE PLANS.ELECTION COVERAGE. Starting Tuesday evening -- once we can call a few races -- we'll post the news updates here. Regular updates, plus new threads every so often to keep the discussions going. Be sure to check back throughout the night.US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups: ALASKA (Hays Research): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) - 49%, US Senator Ted Stevens (R) - 42%, Others - 2%. GEORGIA (SurveyUSA): US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) - 48%, former State Rep. Jim Martin (D) - 44%, attorney Allen Buckley (Libt) - 5%. GEORGIA (PPP-D): US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) - 48%, former State Rep. Jim Martin (D) - 46%, attorney Allen Buckley (Libt) - 4%. GEORGIA (Strategic Vision-R): US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) - 48%, former State Rep. Jim Martin (D) - 44%, attorney Allen Buckley (Libt) - 4%. GEORGIA (Insider Advantage): US Senator Saxby Chambliss (R) - 46%, former State Rep. Jim Martin (D) - 44%, attorney Allen Buckley (Libt) - 2%. MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Humorist Al Franken (D) - 44%, US Senator Norm Coleman (R) - 39%, former US Senator Dean Barkley (IP) - 16%.MONTANA (PPP-D): US Senator Max Baucus (D) - 71%, attorney Bob Kelleher (R) - 26%.NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 50%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 43%, postal worker Chris Cole (Libt) - 5%.NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 51%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 44%, postal worker Chris Cole (Libt) - 3%.NORTH CAROLINA (Mason-Dixon): US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 46%, State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 45%.GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:NEW HAMPSHIRE (Strategic Vision-R): Governor John Lynch (D) - 67%, State Senator Joe Kenney (R) - 24%.WASHINGTON (Washington Post): Governor Christine Gregoire (D) - 50%, former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) - 48%.WASHINGTON (Strategic Vision-R): Governor Christine Gregoire (D) - 49%, former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) - 47%.CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US House races.ALASKA (Research 2000): Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D) - 53%, Congressman Don Young (R) - 44%. NEVADA CD-3 (Mason-Dixon): Congressman Jon Porter (R) - 44%, former State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus (D) - 44%UTAH CD-1 (Deseret News): Congressman Rob Bishop (R) - 60%, Mormon seminary teacher Morgan Bowen (D) - 27%.UTAH CD-2 (Deseret News): Congressman Jim Matheson (D) - 65%, businessman Bill Dew (R) - 26%.UTAH CD-3 (Deseret News): Former gubernatorial chief of staff Jason Chaffetz (R) - 58%, journalist Bennion Spencer (D) - 24%.WYOMING (Research 2000): Former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis (R) - 49%, businessman Gary Trauner (D) - 45%, attorney David Herbert (Libt) - 2%.Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.08 Permalink postCount('110308');COMMENTS (720) SATURDAY NEWS UPDATE.RON'S ELECTION PREVIEW (AND PREDICTIONS): PART 4 - SOUTH CAROLINA-WYOMING ... AND PRESIDENT.SOUTH CAROLINA.US SENATE: US Senator Lindsey Graham (R) will easily defeat former Pat Buchanan campaign activist and commercial pilot Bob Conley (D) -- although Conley will finish in the low 40s.CD-1: Congressman Henry Brown (R) is facing a very tough challenge from philanthropist and Food Lion grocery chain heiress Linda Ketner (D), who is also openly gay. Independent polling shows Ketner within striking range. Brown is having to defend himself against Ketner's deep personal pockets and DCCC money, but the challenger may have timed her late surge well. Conventional wisdom says Brown should win, but this is not a conventional year. This race is a coin toss -- and I know this would be a longshot upset -- but I'll call it for Ketner over the 73-year-old incumbent.SOUTH DAKOTA.Despite lingering health issues, US Senator Tim Johnson (D) will win a lopsided re-election victory. So will Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D).TENNESSEE.US SENATE: US Senator Lamar Alexander (R) will score a landslide win.CD-1: Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe defeated freshman Congressman David Davis in the GOP primary. Roe is a safe bet to win this seat.TEXAS.US SENATE: State Representative and Iraq War veteran Rick Noriega (D) is an attractive candidate, but US Senator John Cornyn (R) will still win re-election to a second term.CD-7: Businessman Michael Skelly (D) has proven to be a tougher-than-expected challenger, but Congressman John Culberson (R) will survive.CD-10: Congressman Mike McCaul (R) unexpectedly finds himself in the toughest fight of his career. Attorney and actor Larry Joe Doherty (D) has waged a solid campaign. McCaul will win.CD-22: Congressman Nick Lampson (D) has been the NRCC's top national target ever since he unexpectedly captured former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's (R) seat two years ago. Lampson has done everything possible to strengthen his position in this solid GOP district. However, attorney, former congressional aide and Naval Reserve officer Pete Olson (R) will score a rare GOP pickup this year by ousting Lampson.CD-23: Congressman Ciro Rodriguez (D), who narrowly won this seat two years ago, will survive the aggressive challenge from Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson (R).UTAH.GOVERNOR: Incumbent Jon Huntsman Jr. (R) will win the biggest gubernatorial landslide of the 2008 cycle.CD-3: Former gubernatorial chief of staff Jason Chaffetz ousted Congressman Chris Cannon in the GOP primary. Chaffetz will win big in this very red district.VERMONT.GOVERNOR: GOP centrist Governor Jim Douglas will score a comfortable re-election victory. The only question is whether progressive activist Anthony Pollina (Independent) or State House Speaker Gaye Symington (D) will finish in second place.VIRGINIA.US SENATE: The battle to replace retiring US Senator John Warner (R) between two former '08 White House hopefuls isn't even close. Former Governor Mark Warner (D) will defeat former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) by at least 20 points. Another Dem pickup.CD-2: Former US Foreign Service diplomat Glenn Nye (D) has proven to be a very credible challenger to Congresswoman Thelma Drake (R) -- but Drake will win another term.CD-5: Congressman Virgil Goode (R) faces a surprisingly well-financed challenge from international non-profit group organizer Tom Perriello (D). Goode will survive.CD-10: Congressman Frank Wolf (R) was swept into office on the wave of the 1980 Reagan landslide. The 2008 Obama wave just doesn't seem strong enough to help Georgetown Public Policy Institute Dean Judy Feder (D) sweep Wolf out of office this year. But this one will be surprisingly close.CD-11: Congressman Tom Davis (R) is retiring. Fairfax County Council Chair Gerry Connolly (D) will score a comfortable Dem pickup in this open seat race.WASHINGTON.GOVERNOR: Governor Christine Gregoire (D) is locked in a very close rematch against former State Senator Dino Rossi (R). Independent polling shows the two have been statistically tied for two months now. Obama's strength in the state should be enough to carry Gregoire to a very tight re-election win. Unlike four years ago, a change of state law means there are no other candidates in the general election race.CD-8: Congressman Dave Reichert (R) narrowly survived a challenge two years ago from former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D). The two are facing off again, and this race is likewise close. Democratic strength here is stronger now than it was in 2006 (or 2004). This time Burner will win.WEST VIRGINIA.GOVERNOR: Governor Joe Manchin (D) will win big.US SENATE: Incumbent Jay Rockefeller (D) will likewise win big for a fifth term.CD-2: Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito, a GOP centist, is frequent Dem target. Every two years they get their hopes up, then Capito wins again. This year her opponent is Anne Barth (D), the former longtime State Director for US Senator Robert Byrd. Polling shows Barth has narrowed the gap, but look for Capito to win.WISCONSIN.CD-8: Freshman Congressman Steve Kagen (D) is facing a rematch from former State House Speaker John Gard (R). Same result as two years ago: Kagen wins.WYOMING.US SENATE - BOTH SEATS: US Senator Mike Enzi (R) will win easy re-election to a third term. US Senator John Barrasso (R) -- appointed last year to fill the vacancy left by the death of US Senator Craig Thomas (R) -- will also comfortably win his first election to the Senate in the special election.CCONGRESS: Congresswoman Barbara Cubin (R) is retiring. Former Teton County School Board Chair and businessman Gary Trauner (D) nearly defeated Cubin in 2006. Trauner is running again, this time against former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis (R). Like two years ago, Trauner will come close -- but Lummis will win.CONGRESS: THE MATH. US SENATE: Democrats gain ten seats (Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia). Republicans score no pickups. Kentucky clearly is the "iffy-ist" of my calls. For the next Congress, this means 60 Democrats (including Sanders), 39 Republicans ... plus Joe Lieberman (who, presumably, will remain an Independent but caucus with the GOP next year).US HOUSE: Democrats score a net gain of 31 seats. Democrats score 34 pickups: AL-2, AK, AZ-1, CA-4, CO-4, CT-4, FL-8, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, ID-1, IL-10, IL-11, IN-3, MD-1, MI-7, MI-9, MN-3, MN-6, MO-9, NV-3, NJ-3, NM-1, NM-2, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, NC-8, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, SC-1, VA-11 and WA-8. Republicans score three pickups: FL-16, PA-11 and TX-22. The next Congress: 267 Democrats, 168 Republicans. Postscript: Veteran national GOP strategist and dirty trickster Roger Stone tells Politics1 that "in an election year like this one, we'll also see 2-3 'safe' Republican [congressional] incumbents -- I'm talking about people not even on any any lists of longshot races -- go down to defeat."THE PRESIDENCY.Expect 80% or more of the remaining "undecideds" to go with McCain. Frankly, I'm presuming nearly all of those claiming to be undecided are actually already decided McCain voters. The key will be the final, reliable independent polls. So long as Obama is polling 49% or better in a state, place that state in the Obama column. If McCain is in the 47-49 range, give that state to McCain -- likewise for any "virtually tied" states in which Obama is polling under 46%. This matrix tells me Obama will win -- and I believe with at least 300 electoral votes. Obama will also win a majority of the national popular vote.SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated). My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301. Today's thanks go out to:Attorney and civil rights activist Cheryl Bergian (D-North Dakota) - Candidate for State Public Service Commissioner.Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.08 Permalink